MENA Warning

Warnings against neglecting the conflict in Syria

We are in a situation similar to the chaotic beginning of the second half of the 1930s, and it is possible to refer to this as an "epidemic of lawlessness" to borrow the phrase used by then US President Roosevelt.

The Middle East appears to be heading toward worse chaos in the coming months, as military operations and the targeting of civilians and infrastructure coincide in multiple parts of the region -notably in northern Syria and the Gaza Strip- and with the participation of all foreign powers operating militarily in the region.

The cooling crisis approach that has been followed for the last several years cannot achieve stability in the Middle East, and the outbreak of a new phase of confrontation between the Palestinians and Israel confirms the danger of this approach. Because many of the region's crises have been stagnant for a few years, the re-outbreak of one crisis in the region reactivates many intertwined crises.

The US is gradually reducing its commitments in the MENA region, taking several approaches, including networking among regional powers (particularly between Israel and the Arabs). However, this commitment reduction creates a vacuum in MENA, which grows as the US becomes more involved in international affairs (Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa), prompting other powers (inevitably) to fill it to the extent of their strength.