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Methodology

We apply strict and flexible scientific methods based on the following elements below:

When we map out our solutions, we aim to apply a wiser approach to dealing with risks and crises in the Middle East. To accomplish this, we believe that multi-optional opportunities must be provided through multiple solutions, rather than just monitoring risks and crises.

Hence, the foundation of our method is based on the following two processes:

  • Proactive process: where we monitor risks and warn about them before becoming crises.

  • Reactive process: where we deal with risks after they become crises through a multi-tool approach.

Methodology

To design an applicable political solution we recommend that there should be a regional interagency strategy that is created by regional actors. For that, we employ a multi-tool method that is comprised of the following:

  • Extensive experience in the Middle East politics and history;

  • Realizing the importance of the cultural specificity of the region;

  • Taking into account the structural diversity among the Middle East countries;

  • Analysis of the region's policies through a tripartite approach (international, regional, and local);

  • Policy analysis according to a temporal perspective (historical and future);

  • Using quantitative and statistical tools;

  • Applying a comparative method;

  • Connecting multiple crises and risks to expand a comprehensive vision;

  • Creating multiple scenarios with various solutions.

Long-Term Risks in the Region:

We keep in mind the following long-term risks, which appear frequently, chaotically, and cause severe disorders:

  1. Political and religious ideologies;

  2. Insurgent movements;

  3. Separatist movements;

  4. Domestic and transnational terrorism;

  5. Domestic and inter-state militias;

  6. Failed states;

  7. Corruption and bad governance.

  8. Domestic and global economic crisis;

  9. Climate change;

  10. External intrusions; and

  11. Foreign occupations.

Risks
Risks

What is risk?

 

A risk is a situation with a degree of uncertainty, which could be in the present or the future; this uncertainty matters.

Probability and impact, or likelihood and consequence, are the fundamentals of risk management, where probability is a measure of how uncertain something is, and impact is a measure of how much it matters.

This uncertainty benefits and disadvantages our clients. Both require proactive management.

Risk management entails maximizing our clients' benefits from opportunities that come with risks while minimizing risk threats. As a result, the risk is a two-sided concept that explicitly addresses all uncertainty.

We address many types of risks in this region in our office: Risks and Solutions, by identifying and analyzing them before mapping out a strategy for the two processes: maximizing benefits and minimizing threats. These processes aim to limit threats within their local environments and work to undermine them as much as possible while providing a plan that protects our clients' preferences from these risks.

Risk Classification

To determine the severity level of an event/crisis, we rely on the following matrices:

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  • Time Extension;

  • Crisis Activity;

  • Internal Parties;

  • Foreign Intervention (state actors);

  • Foreign Intervention (non-state actors);

  • Regional Effect;

  • A Variety of Reliable Global Indices;

  • Future Path;

  • Contingent Variable Factors; and

  • Sharpness (The result of Matrices).

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We categorize the risk level of events and countries into the Middle East region in four risk levels. 

  • Extreme Risk: risks affect all neighbors in many ways, both short and long-term, dangerously and urgently.

  • Risk: risks can harm some neighbors in the short or long term, in some ways but not urgently.

  • Low Risk: no risk in the short-term, but the situation contains some ambiguous structures that may have a negative long-term impact.

  • Safety: The event or country has a secure regional effect.

Indicator
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